SemiAnalysis/Dylan Patel, Doug, Wayne Ma and Jordan Nanos
Nvidia and the World Without Jensen
Is NVIDIA Over? Export Controls, RASA, Open Source Implications, Supply Chain Implications, Affair, US Still Dependent On China
Source
SemiAnalysis
SemiAnalysis is an independent research firm covering semiconductors, AI infrastructure, datacenters and the economics of compute.
Collected from the Substack archive listing, with the public RSS feed as a fallback. Most posts are for paid subscribers, so we show the publisher's subtitle and link to the original.
- Pieces, last six months
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- 59
- Publisher
- newsletter.semianalysis.com
Refreshed hourly, last on November 14, 2026 at 1:21 AM UTC
60 of 60 pieces
November 2026
SemiAnalysis/Everlyn Tan, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Xiaopeng Laoban and Dylan Patel
We Visited China’s Stargate in Inner Mongolia
A wind-powered 800MW campus, 120MW built within a year, a 5MW SST-native 800V DC pilot and a cooling design without central chillers
SemiAnalysis/Bryan Shan, Alec Ibarra, Cam Quilici, Kimbo Chen, Wenyao Gao, Dylan Patel and Myron Xie
The Iron(wood) Throne: Google's TPU Stakes Its Claim on Inference
Viable Alternative of CUDA Moat, NVIDIA Working Nights & Weekends, Jensen’s Counter Submission, Kimi K3, Meta Muse Spark Open, GLM5.3, TorchTPU, SGLang, vLLM, llm-d, Ray
Subscribers onlyChips & hardwareInference & pricingModels & releasesRead at newsletter.semianalysis.com
SemiAnalysis/Reyk Knuhtsen, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros and Dylan Patel
Elon Is Doing It Again: SpaceX Will Be The World’s Biggest AI Cloud
Making 13GW in 1.5 Years A Reality, Repurposing Rocket Ship Campuses, A Datacenter at TeraFab?
SemiAnalysis/Max Kan, Andrew Megalaa and Dylan Patel
GDPx: Measuring Frontier Model Capabilities Across the Most Valuable Domains
A comprehensive benchmark spanning RSI, hardware design, cyber, bio, finance, legal, quant trading, chip design, software engineering, materials science, and alignment
SemiAnalysis/Maya Barkin, Wayne Ma, Reyk Knuhtsen, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros and Dylan Patel
The Datacenter Backlash Goes Bipartisan: Next Week's Midterms and the 2028 Buildout
2027 is largely locked in. 2028 is less secure: a prolonged Texas permit freeze is now the biggest single risk to the US buildout, and both parties are running on tighter rules
October 2026
SemiAnalysis/Kimbo Chen and Dylan Patel
Amazon’s Trainium Takes a Strike at the Training King
Trainium Best for Inference? But now good for Training too, Native Trainium PyTorch, High Quality CI, TorchTitan, GPU Impossible Profiler
SemiAnalysis/Bryan Shan and Dylan Patel
The Huawei-DeepSeek Symbiosis
Huawei Ascend 950PR Deep dive & µbenchmarks, DSv4.1 Flash Analysis, DeepSeek support for Ascend, AICPU, Tilelang Ascend
SemiAnalysis/Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Reyk Knuhtsen and Dylan Patel
Datacenters 2027: The Year of Acceleration, +50GW in a Single Year
60GW Under Construction, SemiAnalysis Leading Indicators, 1.3T of Lease Contracts Signed YTD, The Shortage Could Move to Chips
SemiAnalysis/Sherry Zhang, Gerald Wong, Steven Lee and Dylan Patel
ASML Is Building a Hybrid Bonding Tool!
ASML is building a hybrid bonding tool! The company has not announced anything yet, but its patent filings, a news report and its own roadmap all suggest so.
SemiAnalysis/Mark Chen, Doug and Dylan Patel
Beijing Will Not Pace the Frontier: China’s Speed-First AI Safety Regime
AI safety is on fire.
SemiAnalysis/Andrew Megalaa, Max Kan and Dylan Patel
Anthropic Subscriptions Offer 5x+ More Value Than OpenAI
Limit testing every AI subscription plan from Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta, SpaceXAI, MiniMax, Moonshot, Z.ai, Cursor, and Cognition
Subscribers onlyRead at newsletter.semianalysis.com
September 2026
SemiAnalysis/Kimbo Chen, Alec Ibarra, Wenyao Gao, Pratt Bhatt, Bryan Shan and Dylan Patel
How GLM5.3 Sparse Attention Affects HBM Memory Usage
GLM-5.3, KV Cache Offloading, HiSparse, AgentX TileRT, InferenceX DeepSeek Sparse Attention, IndexShare, Single-rollout Asynchronous Optimization, Cybersecurity
SemiAnalysis/Adith Shankar, Daniel Sanchez, Allison Elliott, Sarah Lawrence, Afzal Ahmad, Andrew Wagner, STEEL Team, Dylan Patel and Hemanth Ajithkumar
Intel Panther Lake Teardown
Taking a look inside Intel’s latest consumer chip and 18A process node
SemiAnalysis/Everlyn Tan, Dylan Patel and Patrick Schaabi
The Chinese AI Infrastructure Boom: Introducing the SemiAnalysis China Datacenter Model
1,000+ facilities across 60+ operators mapped, built retail-first and flipped by AI, largest hyperscaler leases 1/5 national capacity, 100MW in 12 months, Eastern Data Western Compute
Subscribers onlyDatacenters & energyModels & releasesPolicy & geopoliticsRead at newsletter.semianalysis.com
SemiAnalysis/Jordan Nanos, Sam Harshe, Samuel Kruse, Pratt Bhatt, Billy Cao, Jack Carson and Dylan Patel
ClusterMAX 3.0: The Industry Standard GPU Cloud Rating System Returns
In gory detail: reliability, performance, support, pricing—and, of course, security—in our most thorough analysis of GPU cloud providers globally.
SemiAnalysis/Tanj Bennett, Bryan Shan and Dylan Patel
Computation and Data Movement for Inference
Mapping MoE models onto inference hardware: structure, flow, and efficient serving
SemiAnalysis/Bryan Shan, Cam Quilici, Alec Ibarra, Kimbo Chen, Myron Xie and Dylan Patel
Engrams Embedding Entendre: Codesign for Efficient DRAM/SSD Offloading
New Model Architecture Implications for TAM of DRAM/NVMe, DeepSeek V4.1 Flash, AgentX, InferenceX, NVMe experiments
SemiAnalysis/Maya Barkin, Reyk Knuhtsen, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros and Dylan Patel
Everyone Says Datacenter Moratoriums Are Killing the US Buildout. We disagree
300+ moratoriums mapped, 20GW sits inside a restricted local boundary, 1,525MW actually slips, 2.3GW nationwide including New York
SemiAnalysis/Bryan Shan, Alec Ibarra, Cam Quilici, Wenyao Gao and Dylan Patel
Vera Rubin NVL72 Agentic Inference: 67x better Performance per Dollar
Jensen Sandbagging Performance Again, 2x more Annual Profit Per GigaWatt, The More you Buy, The More you Earn, AgentX, InferenceX, Extreme Co-Design
Subscribers onlyChips & hardwareDatacenters & energyInference & pricingRead at newsletter.semianalysis.com
SemiAnalysis/Ivan Chiam, Zane Fong, Bryan Shan, Dylan Patel and Reyk Knuhtsen
A Brain Too Big to Carry — On-Device vs Datacenter Inference
Robot Models, Silicon & DRAM Efficiency, Jetson Thor vs. B300 TCO, Deployments, The Network Wall
Subscribers onlyChips & hardwareDatacenters & energyInference & pricingRead at newsletter.semianalysis.com
SemiAnalysis/Myron Xie, Bryan Shan, Harrison Barclay, Minjae Kang and Dylan Patel
Long Live the Short King: Why 4-hi HBM Wins
Same Bandwidth, Fewer Dies: How 4-hi HBM Cuts Inference Costs and Makes Scarce DRAM Go Further
SemiAnalysis/Daniel Nishball, Oliver Kennon and Terence Ong
Nvidia’s Backstop Universe – Heads I Win, Tails Who Loses?
The $11T AI Buildout, Nvidia’s Backstop Economics, and the Limits of Nvidia’s Balance Sheet
SemiAnalysis/Ellie Holbrook, Robert Boswall, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Nicolas Bontigui and Dylan Patel
What is So Hard About Behind-The-Meter Power For Datacenters? Part 1
Dumb Science Experiments vs. Money Printing Machines
SemiAnalysis/Alec Ibarra, Cam Quilici, Bryan Shan, Wenyao Gao, Daniel Nishball, Zane Fong and Dylan Patel
TPU Inference Externalization Full Steam Ahead - InferenceX
InferenceX, Up to 50% Better Performance per Dollar, Rapid Externalization of TPU stack, Growing Customer Base, Ironwood, TPUv8i, Reducing CUDA Moat
SemiAnalysis/Max Kan, Ray Wang, Myron Xie and Dylan Patel
Korea’s Trillion-Dollar Sovereign AI Investment: Nvidia Wins, Hynix Loses
Korea hosts a Squid Games, National AI Tournament, the best non-Chinese open source model gets eliminated, why Nvidia needs open source, implications for Hynix and Samsung
Subscribers onlyChips & hardwareModels & releasesPolicy & geopoliticsRead at newsletter.semianalysis.com
August 2026
SemiAnalysis/Jordan Nanos, Sam Harshe, Pratt Bhatt, Billy Cao, Jack Carson and Dylan Patel
Most Neoclouds Suck At Security
OpenAI vs HuggingFace, Container Escapes, Kernel Bypass, Network Policies, Security Keys, Multi-tenant Grafana, and a ClusterMAX 3.0 Preview
Subscribers onlyRead at newsletter.semianalysis.com
SemiAnalysis/Bryan Shan, Myron Xie, Jordan Nanos, Wega Chu, Clara Ee and Dylan Patel
OpenAI Jalapeño: Better Than Nvidia Blackwell
OpenAI’s self-designed ASIC compared with Rubin, Jalapeño’s TCO, throughput per MW, and spicy deets
Subscribers onlyChips & hardwareDatacenters & energyInference & pricingRead at newsletter.semianalysis.com
SemiAnalysis/Cam Quilici, Bryan Shan, Alec Ibarra, Daniel Nishball, Zane Fong, Kimbo Chen and Dylan Patel
AgentX - InferenceXv3: Does CUDA Moat Hold up in Agentic Inferencing?
$3 Million USD dataset open sourced, 1 Mil+ Context Length, Multiturn, Sub Agents 95%+ KVCache HitRate, GB300 NVL72, MI355, B200
SemiAnalysis/Evan Cloutier, Max Kan, Jordan Nanos, Dylan Patel and Andrew Megalaa
Are Open Models Catching Up?
Comparing open vs. closed models across the eras of frontier models, Is the gap narrowing?
SemiAnalysis/Myron Xie, Bryan Shan, Wega Chu, Jordan Nanos and Dylan Patel
Cerebras's Next Generation CS-4: Fast Just Got Faster
Double the Performance, Double the Power, Double the Fun
SemiAnalysis/Robert Boswall, Reyk Knuhtsen, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Oliver Kennon, Dylan Patel and Dashboard American
$12B of US ratepayers' money wasted on a modeling mistake and PJM wants to do it again
American Grid design needs an overhaul, Why it is good to be full of cold air.
SemiAnalysis/Bryan Shan, Daniel Nishball, Cam Quilici, Kimbo Chen, Alec Ibarra and Dylan Patel
Ultra-High Interactivity on NVIDIA GPUs? - TileRT InferenceX
Can TileRT software on NVIDIA GPU compete with Cerebras, Groq LPU, SambaNova? Batch Size 1, Disaggregated engine, high throughput prefill engine, high interactivity decode engine
SemiAnalysis/Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Reyk Knuhtsen, Jordan Nanos, Max Kan, Dylan Patel, Muhammad Zuhair and Hemanth Ajithkumar
SpaceX 10GW in 2027 – Why It’s Real, Will Drive $300B ARR for SpaceX, and Why Microsoft Will Be the Largest Offtaker
Inference at 100B/GW/year, SpaceX's stellar pace, Microsoft's 10GW 2026 Awakening, Azure Can Grow Triple-Digits
SemiAnalysis/Max Kan, Joey Brookhart, Dylan Patel, Doug and Andrew Megalaa
Gemini is Cooked but GCP is Cooking
GCP YoY rev growth >100%, DeepMind's long term failure is Google Cloud's short term gain
SemiAnalysis/Kimbo Chen, Shubham Choudhari, Bryan Shan and Dylan Patel
Kimi K3, The Manos, The Mythos, The Legendos
Kimi K3’s architecture: compressed memory, attention across depth, latent expert routing, and serving performance
Subscribers onlyChips & hardwareInference & pricingModels & releasesRead at newsletter.semianalysis.com
July 2026
SemiAnalysis/Nicolas Bontigui, Eric (Junqi) Wen, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Nigel Chiang, Reyk Knuhtsen and Dylan Patel
The Wild Wild West Of LEGO Datacenters
Everyone Says They're Modular, Do The Vendor Claims Hold Up? Zuck's Tents, AWS's Houdini, 60GW+ Modular Capacity Tracked, Full Vendor Landscape Mapping, Vertiv's 2x Content Uplift Per MW
SemiAnalysis/Bryan Shan, Daniel Nishball, Myron Xie, Wega Chu, Ivan Chiam, Cam Quilici, Cheang Kang Wen, Kimbo Chen, Gerald Wong, Zane Fong, Jordan Nanos and Dylan Patel
Can AMD break the CUDA Moat? AMD Advancing AI 2026
Up to 105% Equity Rebate Discounts for OpenAI, Agentic Kernel Generation, Improvement in Software Quality, Unstable Internal Development Clusters, Helios MI455X Production Ramp Hell
SemiAnalysis/Alec Ibarra, Bryan Shan, Daniel Nishball, Zane Fong, Cam Quilici, Kimbo Chen, Jordan Nanos and Dylan Patel
Vera Rubin NVL72 vs GB200 NVL72? Inference TCO & Architecture Analysis
Rubin LUT Based Tensor Core, Feynman, Rack Scale, Perf Per MegaWatt, Perf Per Dollar, Software Improvements, Public Rubin Software, PyTorch, vLLM, OpenAI Triton
SemiAnalysis/Wayne Ma, Myron Xie, Julien Martin-Prin, Daniel Nishball and Dylan Patel
Meta’s Infrastructure Team Needs A Culture Reset
Meta Infrastructure has become bloated, with middle managers expending resources on over-engineered technology solutions that lose sight of broader organizational needs.
Subscribers onlyRead at newsletter.semianalysis.com
SemiAnalysis/Max Kan, Julien Martin-Prin, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros and Dylan Patel
The Future of Meta Superintelligence: A 1 Year Progress Update
A top tier RL environment startup spawns out of thin air, the most aggressive compute ramp we've ever seen, 2000km+ scale-across, and some advice for Google DeepMind
Subscribers onlyRead at newsletter.semianalysis.com
SemiAnalysis/Joey Brookhart, Crystal Huang and Dylan Patel
Anthropic 3Q26 Profit Over $1B: The Anthropic IPO Financials Sneak Peak
Anthropic’s Opportunity is Theirs to Lose
Subscribers onlyRead at newsletter.semianalysis.com
SemiAnalysis/Daniel Nishball, Cheang Kang Wen, Zane Fong, Reyk Knuhtsen, Sebastian Orejas, Jordan Nanos, Terence Ong, Dylan Patel and Hemanth Ajithkumar
Nvidia GPU Debt Backstop Unleashes the AI Project Trinity: Capital, Offtake and Datacenters
Over 7T AI debt by 2029, There can be no Neoclouds without the Trinity. Nvidia's Backstop Economics Explained.
Subscribers onlyChips & hardwareDatacenters & energyEconomics & laborRead at newsletter.semianalysis.com
SemiAnalysis/Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Max Kan, Joey Brookhart, Crystal Huang and Dylan Patel
Meta Compute: Everyone Wants To Be A Neocloud
Zuck Takes Plan B? SpaceX 2.0, Bedrock 2.0, MSL Isn't Giving Up, Scaling RecSys by 10x...
Subscribers onlyRead at newsletter.semianalysis.com
SemiAnalysis/Afzal Ahmad, TC, Gerald Wong and Dylan Patel
EMIB-T Roadmap, Custom HBM, HBM4 Packaging Challenges, Microfluidic Cooling, Photonic Interconnects, and More
ECTC 2026 Roundup, Intel, TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, Marvell, Lightmatter, Microsoft
June 2026
SemiAnalysis/Crystal Huang, Joey Brookhart and Dylan Patel
TokenBudgeting: Our Conversations with Enterprises on Token Spend
Was Widespread TokenMaxxing Ever Really Here?
SemiAnalysis/Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Sebastian Orejas, Ellie Holbrook and Dylan Patel
US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-The-Meter Datacenter by 2028?
Why the Grid Can't Keep Up, and Why that Drives Behind-The-Meter 50%+ of DCs/Year By 2028
SemiAnalysis/Ray Wang, Myron Xie, Dylan Patel, Junsung Kim, Sravan Kundojjala and Louis Lu
China’s CXMT Is Set to Challenge DRAM Incumbents
CXMT IPO, SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung Competition, Process Node Deficit, China HBM, Wafer Adds, Memory LTAs
SemiAnalysis/Reyk Knuhtsen, Maya Barkin, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Ellie Holbrook, Nicolas Bontigui and Dylan Patel
Stop Saying Half of 2026 US Datacenter Capacity Is Canceled
Don't Believe The Vibecoded Estimates, Go Through Every Individual Filing Instead
SemiAnalysis/Kimbo Chen, Cheang Kang Wen and Dylan Patel
RL Systems Mind the Gap: Matching Trainer and Generator Throughput
RL Training Infrastructure, GRPO, PipelineRL, Async RL, Policy Staleness, RL Sandbox Infra, CPU Requirements, TCO Analysis, Thinking Machines Tinker
SemiAnalysis/STEEL Team, Afzal Ahmad, Andrew Wagner, Gerald Wong, Wayne Ma, Dylan Patel, Daniel Sanchez, Adith Shankar, Allison Elliott and Sarah Lawrence
Is SMIC N+3’s Metal Pitch Smaller than Intel 18A’s?
SMIC N+3 Node Deep Dive vs TSMC N6, TechInsights Private Equity Sale, SemiAnalysis Teardown Engineering & Evaluation Lab, HiSilicon Kirin 9030, Process Technology, Patterning, Cell Architecture
SemiAnalysis/Doug, Sravan Kundojjala and Dylan Patel
Intel Should Raise Capital
Intel's woes are behind them. The heavy spending is ahead of them.
SemiAnalysis/Bryan Shan, Cam Quilici, Kimbo Chen, Alec Ibarra, Dylan Patel, Daniel Nishball and Cheang Kang Wen
DeepSeekV4 1.6T Day 0 to Day 43 Performance Over Time - Huawei, GB300 NVL72, MI355X, B200
Day 0 Inference Performance, InferenceX, 100x performance improvement in 26 Days, Cost per Million Tokens, Huawei 950DT Inference Trace Analysis
SemiAnalysis/Reyk Knuhtsen, Niko Ciminelli, Jacob Rintamaki, Robert Ghilduta, Joe Ryu, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros and Dylan Patel
Unitree's Impossible Trajectory Is Still Overlooked
The Fastest Iteration Cycle In Next-Gen Robotics Should See Unprecedented Acceleration
Subscribers onlyRead at newsletter.semianalysis.com
SemiAnalysis/Daniel Nishball, Pranav Myana, Ellie Holbrook, Harley Blackard, Zane Fong, Cheang Kang Wen, Sravan Kundojjala, Tanj Bennett, Myron Xie, Terence Ong and Hemanth Ajithkumar
To Boldly Go: The Case for Space Datacenters
Space DC Total Cost of Ownership Explained. Unpacking constraints from Terrestrial DCs and Chip Production.
Subscribers onlyChips & hardwareDatacenters & energyInference & pricingRead at newsletter.semianalysis.com
May 2026
SemiAnalysis/Malcolm Spittler and Dylan Patel
AI Dark Output: The Visible Cost of Invisible Output
Why AI's increasing output is going to be one of the hardest economic measurement problems in history. AI "Dark Output" could end up being the majority of economic activity, but a challenge to measure
SemiAnalysis/Justin Lebar
Finding Miscompiles for Fun, Not Profit
Or: You don’t need access to Claude Mythos to spend $10,000 in an afternoon.
SemiAnalysis/Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Joey Brookhart, Crystal Huang and Dylan Patel
Anthropic Growth and Bedrock Mix Drive AWS Margins Higher While Peers Lag
Amazon’s Bedrock Mix and Anthropic Deal Terms Combine to Show Greater Operating Leverage
Subscribers onlyRead at newsletter.semianalysis.com
SemiAnalysis/Nicolas Bontigui, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Konrad Wang, Aran Industries, Derek Yin and Dylan Patel
Inside the 800VDC Revolution – Part 1
Four-Phase 800VDC Transition, Power Rack Economics, SST, Equipment Content/MW Build, Supplier Implications
SemiAnalysis/Sravan Kundojjala, Dylan Patel and Gerald Wong
EDA Market Primer - Market Dynamics, Cadence, Synopsys, Siemens, China EDA Rise
EDA Market size, Share, Business Models, Drivers, Changing Customer Base, Competitive Dynamics, IP, Hardware, CoT, Lock-In Economics, Disruptive Forces
Subscribers onlyModels & releasesPolicy & geopoliticsEconomics & laborRead at newsletter.semianalysis.com